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Here are a couple of pix I've snapped recently as I drove along the 241 from Coto to Irvine; enjoy!
For home sellers, the data can give them insight into market conditions in their areas right now. Of course, every home needs to be evaluated individually, but there is some benefit in seeing what an area's price-per-square-foot is in helping a home seller determine their home's value.
For home buyers, the data gives them the ability to measure the homes they are looking at against what the trends suggest in a broad sense... if a 2,000 square foot home in Irvine is priced at $750,000 and today's price-per-square-foot in Irvine is $425, that would suggest that the $725,000 home is $100,000 under what the general conditions for the city are {[($425 x 2,000 = $825,000) - $725,000] = $100,000}. Now, it is never this easy, nor will it ever be, to determine a home's real value, but it does give some sense of a base value for an area and can be used as a general guide when shopping.
At this point, I'm publishing data at the city level, but am driving at getting data at the zip-code level for greater refinement. Here's what I've got so far:
Real Estate Market Data for Aliso Viejo, California
Real Estate Market Data for Corona del Mar, California
Real Estate Market Data for Costa Mesa, California
Real Estate Market Data for Irvine, California
Real Estate Market Data for Ladera Ranch, California
Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Beach, California
Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Hills, California
Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Niguel, California
Real Estate Market Data for Mission Viejo, California
Real Estate Market Data for Newport Beach, California
Real Estate Market Data for Newport Coast, California
Real Estate Market Data for Orange, California
Real Estate Market Data for Rancho Santa Margarita, California
Real Estate Market Data for San Clemente, California
Real Estate Market Data for San Juan Capistrano, California
Real Estate Market Data for Tustin, California
Example Median Price Chart for Irvine, CA
Market Update Example for Irvine
(You'll need the Flash player to see this)
If you can't see that FlashPaper version of the "Market Report", here is an Adobe Acrobat version of the same report - Example Irvine Market Report
At this point, I'm not publishing the Market Reports on my site; they are too big...However, I am sending them to my client base, so if you want to receive one or two reports, just email me and I'll set you up to automatically get them in your inbox!
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“Sales of new one-family houses in October 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 728,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 1.7 percent (±11.0%)* above the revised September rate of 716,000 and is 23.5 percent (±10.3%) below the October 2006 estimate of 952,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2007 was $217,800; the average sales price was $305,800. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 516,000. This represents a supply of 8.5 months at the current sales rate.”
A statistical variation of "±11.0%"?!?
That means the "real" number could either be 12.7% more sales or -9.3% sales over the prior month's numbers? This is the quality of data that sets real estate and stock markets on fire or on ice? I think a much more honest report would say "We don't have the foggiest idea what the numbers are; in fact, your guess is probably as good as mine!"
I couldn't help but dig in a little deeper to see what that asterisk meant hanging off of that "±11.0%" figure in the report. At the bottom of the report, the “Explanatory Notes” say that “Whenever a statement such as ‘2.5 percent (±3.2%) above’ appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred.” At least they acknowledge the possibility of wild swings in the output.
All of this was simply to say - take your statistics with a grain of salt and double-check the sources and their publishers' intentions. There is no such thing as unbiased data; dig in a little deeper and try and put the information into a context that makes sense for you. For example, I think it is foolish to simply assume the national new home sales numbers automatically reflect on Orange County's numbers. Real estate is and will always be beholden to local market trends & issues, despite best-efforts to wrap them up into tasty sound bites that fit neatly between commercials.
Here's a link to the original report:
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN OCTOBER 2007 Report
There is meatier statistical-data collection methodology described on the Statistics Collection Methods section on the census.gov site here - http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesdoc.html
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I haven't been back into the Canyon areas, but I imagine it's far worse there; my heart goes out to the people who lost homes there.
As we came into Irvine, heading south on the 5, it was clear that the fires were a lot closer than either of us had thought... they were raging along the hillsides that abut Portola Parkway... just as quickly as we were able to make out where the fires were, we were plunged into a stinking cloud of ash and smoke billowing across the freeway. We broke out of the smoke near Sand Canyon Road and we could make out the fires clearly, so we pulled off to get a little closer.
Apparently, we weren't the only ones thinking about getting a closer view, as the cars started lining up on the side of the road to watch the fires blaze. I don't think anyone knew then that the fires would get as out of control as they ended up getting. They are still burning on Saddleback at this very moment, almost ten days later, despite the change in the weather for the better over the past few days.
I didn't have my camera with me that night in Irvine, but I started carrying it later in the week, documenting what I could when I could. Here are a few photos from the past week.
I had an hour before meeting a client today and had to stop and document where the land is at right now, for better or worse. Either way, it is where it is, the rubble of 40's- & 50's-era barracks, hangars & buildings underfoot as progress marches forward.
Playground, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Up-Ended Footers, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Playground, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Canary Island Palms & Tangled Foundation, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Cracked Ceramic Electrical Insulator, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Fallen Metal Halide Street Light, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Northwest view of Hangars, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Barracks, Eucalyptus, & Blocked Street, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Service Bay, Warehouse, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
"End" & "Road Closed", El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Ranger Manual, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Dirt Piles Echoing Saddleback, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Chain-Link Fence, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Barracks & Dead Eucalyptus, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Sunlit Sandy Canyon, Near El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Dead End, Near El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Dry Palms & Blank Sign, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
Canary Island Palms & Light, El Toro Marine Base, Irvine, California, October 2007
The questions that begs asking is: Does a well-decorated and "staged" interior help a home sell faster and/or help retain a higher asking price versus a vacant home? The conventional wisdom answers "yes" to both questions, but I'd love to see some hard data on the matter. One of my clients just had their home staged, we received two offers within two days after the home was staged.
Kevin Htain of Identity Home did the staging and did a fine job. Take a look at a few "before" and "after" pix:
Before
After
Before
After
Before
After
Before
After
Before
After
Before
After
There are more than enough comparisons there to give you the idea - staging a home makes a house much more inviting than an empty space. Kevin Htain did an excellent job of looking at the interior & exterior of the home and creating an overall scheme that worked. Moreover, the owner of the home believed enough in the concept that he willing paid for the staging, hoping that it would pay off with a buyer who would see themselves in the home by extension of the furnishings.
The owner's investment paid off almost immediately after the staging was finished and after the property had been on the market for 5 months. Needless to say, the owner was relieved to have made a wise investment and was happy to finally sell the house.
I don't know whether or not the right buyer just came along at the right time, and the house had escaped their attention thus far, but I can't help bu think that the staging was the tipping point that made them act and make an offer.
Kevin Htain, ASP, IAHSP can be reached at:
IDENTITY HOME staging+design
www.identityhome.com
www.stagedhomes.com/identityhome
kevin@identityhome.com
562.884.1026
No, I thought, the balloon has got to be something else... a continuous event to get people engaged in the place, in the hope of a place... I know, I know... you're thinking "hope of a place" is the corniest thing you've heard in recent weeks, but hope is what I'm holding out for the Park... something grand, something sublime smack dab in the middle of the fabrication of suburbia... something formed with natural edges... a bit shaggy at the hem, if you will...
Anyway, I had a free moment the other day when I was out driving with my daughter... the day was perfect... huge billowy clouds traveling across a midday sky... a cool breeze coming up Laguna Canyon... you know - the perfect OC day... the kind that makes you slip into a waking daydream... I flipped a u-turn and headed back to the entrance off of Sand Canyon... After passing through the unmarked entrance, I followed the signs guiding me to the balloon... not that you need much help - there's an enormous orange globe hovering only slightly in the distance... you'll get there...
As I drove in, I remembered biking out to the Base when I was a kid... taking Irvine Center Drive out to Sand Canyon and hanging a left... stopping at Knowlwoods for a lemonade, my money stuffed into a sock... there was nothing out there then... just farms, fields and a lonely road heading towards the base...
As we pulled in my daughter was getting more and more stoked - "We're gonna ride in that big balloon, Daddy?! Yes!!" She's an adventurer...
We parked, hopped out and made our way across the lot... There was a beautiful little hangar that was behind a fence... the patina on the roof spoke volumes about the place... baked under the sun, once home to servicemen and women who would've laughed out loud if you'd told them there would be a giant hot air balloon in their parking spaces.
We followed the fencing to the temporary structure that serves as the check-in for the ride... i picked up the pace as I noticed that we weren't the only ones who thought this was a dreamy day to ride the balloon. The staff were handing out free tickets with numbers on them "You're about an hour away from riding, is that going to be ok?" one attendant asked me... I knew right then that we couldn't swing it... my daughter is too young and the wait would kill ME, not her... "Oh, really? Bummers! We'll just kick around a bit and check the place out; thanks anyway!"
We walked around the room for a bit and took it in... there is a sense of exuberance here... I loved the idea of the balloon rising up over the beginnings of the Park... the riders were smiling and taking pictures, just simply enjoying the day... this was a brilliant stroke, I thought... get people to see the underbelly of the project... get them to experience it and be able to recall it years from now and see themselves in the creation process... I loved it... kudos to the whoever came up with the balloon idea and kudos to the people who pitched it and pulled it off...
While we didn't get to ride the balloon that day, it was enough for me to get out there, remember what the place was like twenty years ago, see what it has become today and to be able to picture what's coming... I think it's going to be an amazing place...
The LA Times wrote a good article about the recycling efforts being done on the former base here. Check it out.
This is the Orange County Great Park's official website: http://www.ocgp.org/
There is a growing "Great Park Conservancy" that you can support and join to help shape the future of the Park; their site is here: http://www.orangecountygreatpark.org
]]>The challenge for me is to capture an area's soul without being too literal. I'm not exactly interested in the stucco work in Rancho Santa Margarita or Irvine's latest development... those can all be great things, but they have a tendency to fade with time... I think people are looking for more than just architecture in a neighborhood... I think they're looking for "place"... I'm more interested in the way the trees bend to the light and the way Saddleback rises in the distance to frame the area. Every city I visit has these unique qualities... it just takes slowing down and sometimes squinting into the light to blur out the details so you can see the big picture...
Here are a couple photos I took yesterday for the site:
San Juan Capistrano real estate
Rancho Santa Margarita real estate
Coto de Caza real estate
Ladera Ranch real estate
Robinson Ranch real estate
]]>In all, a 5.7% uptick in home values across the county is great news. For people that put 20% down on a property, that's effectively a 28.5% return on their dollar. Wow; not bad for the "bubble" year, huh?
Here's the numbers:
| Community | Zip | Median | Change | Sales | Change |
| Aliso Viejo | 92656 | $526,000 | -1.70% | 1112 | -28.20% |
| Anaheim | 92801 | $559,000 | 12.20% | 440 | -13.70% |
| Anaheim | 92802 | $583,000 | 11.00% | 247 | -33.10% |
| Anaheim | 92804 | $581,000 | 10.60% | 676 | -29.10% |
| Anaheim | 92805 | $565,000 | 9.50% | 464 | -26.00% |
| Anaheim | 92806 | $623,000 | 7.60% | 264 | -23.70% |
| Anaheim | 92807 | $655,000 | 5.70% | 472 | -36.40% |
| Anaheim | 92808 | $660,000 | 16.80% | 346 | -37.20% |
| Brea | 92821 | $650,000 | 6.60% | 356 | -26.40% |
| Brea | 92823 | $760,000 | -2.80% | 53 | -47.00% |
| Buena Park | 90620 | $580,000 | 9.40% | 430 | -22.80% |
| Buena Park | 90621 | $549,000 | 13.20% | 294 | -21.60% |
| Corona del Mar | 92625 | $1,675,000 | 5.80% | 178 | -25.20% |
| Costa Mesa | 92626 | $720,000 | 7.50% | 356 | -32.80% |
| Costa Mesa | 92627 | $702,500 | 4.20% | 454 | -26.80% |
| Cypress | 90630 | $561,000 | 6.70% | 520 | -12.50% |
| Dana Point | 92624 | $869,000 | 8.80% | 89 | -35.50% |
| Dana Point | 92629 | $840,000 | 8.40% | 399 | -28.60% |
| Foothill Ranch | 92610 | $472,000 | -24.50% | 255 | -17.70% |
| Fountain Valley | 92708 | $700,000 | 5.90% | 480 | -30.10% |
| Fullerton | 92831 | $592,500 | 9.70% | 320 | -16.90% |
| Fullerton | 92832 | $571,000 | 12.00% | 178 | -21.90% |
| Fullerton | 92833 | $596,000 | 8.80% | 634 | -33.10% |
| Fullerton | 92835 | $700,000 | 4.50% | 289 | -30.70% |
| Garden Grove | 92840 | $590,000 | 10.30% | 489 | -25.30% |
| Garden Grove | 92841 | $594,500 | 8.10% | 267 | -29.70% |
| Garden Grove | 92843 | $540,000 | 8.00% | 341 | -31.10% |
| Garden Grove | 92844 | $479,000 | 6.80% | 237 | -26.90% |
| Garden Grove | 92845 | $608,000 | 3.20% | 192 | -4.50% |
| Huntington Beach | 92646 | $650,000 | 7.40% | 647 | -30.20% |
| Huntington Beach | 92647 | $660,000 | 3.10% | 369 | -28.80% |
| Huntington Beach | 92648 | $975,000 | 10.20% | 538 | -43.80% |
| Huntington Beach | 92649 | $680,000 | -2.40% | 364 | -36.40% |
| Irvine | 92602 | $747,500 | 9.10% | 390 | -35.40% |
| Irvine | 92603 | $960,000 | 7.90% | 438 | -34.70% |
| Irvine | 92604 | $655,000 | 4.80% | 276 | -35.40% |
| Irvine | 92606 | $725,000 | 10.10% | 200 | -30.80% |
| Irvine | 92612 | $668,000 | 31.00% | 338 | -55.20% |
| Irvine | 92614 | $600,000 | 8.10% | 297 | -38.80% |
| Irvine | 92618 | $579,500 | 5.40% | 217 | -26.20% |
| Irvine | 92620 | $797,500 | 11.80% | 737 | -30.80% |
| Ladera Ranch | 92694 | $833,000 | 27.20% | 961 | -30.80% |
| La Habra | 90631 | $450,000 | -4.10% | 780 | -7.70% |
| La Palma | 90623 | $640,000 | 0.80% | 105 | -44.40% |
| Laguna Beach | 92651 | $1,600,000 | 14.30% | 310 | -35.10% |
| Laguna Hills | 92653 | $620,000 | 13.80% | 414 | -39.10% |
| Laguna Niguel | 92677 | $683,750 | 5.20% | 1152 | -35.20% |
| Laguna Woods | 92637 | $320,000 | -1.20% | 375 | -6.70% |
| Lake Forest | 92630 | $600,000 | 14.50% | 805 | -35.80% |
| Los Alamitos | 90720 | $887,000 | 15.20% | 190 | -21.20% |
| Midway City | 92655 | $560,000 | 12.00% | 69 | -17.90% |
| Mission Viejo | 92691 | $650,000 | 4.70% | 684 | -28.10% |
| Mission Viejo | 92692 | $689,000 | 10.70% | 743 | -32.50% |
| Newport Beach | 92660 | $1,334,750 | -2.10% | 338 | -36.10% |
| Newport Beach | 92661 | $2,250,000 | 21.60% | 44 | -36.20% |
| Newport Beach | 92662 | $2,112,500 | -9.30% | 23 | -36.10% |
| Newport Beach | 92663 | $1,225,000 | 24.40% | 260 | -31.60% |
| Newport Coast | 92657 | $2,181,500 | 14.50% | 243 | -44.10% |
| Orange | 92865 | $624,000 | 8.50% | 172 | -36.50% |
| Orange | 92866 | $650,000 | 6.50% | 100 | -9.10% |
| Orange | 92867 | $680,000 | 3.00% | 457 | -19.00% |
| Orange | 92868 | $510,000 | 13.00% | 172 | -23.20% |
| Orange | 92869 | $661,250 | 10.20% | 505 | -27.00% |
| Placentia | 92870 | $635,000 | 11.80% | 621 | -24.50% |
| Rancho Santa Margarita | 92688 | $540,000 | 3.80% | 903 | -38.60% |
| San Clemente | 92672 | $860,000 | 18.60% | 370 | -33.90% |
| San Clemente | 92673 | $970,000 | 9.10% | 654 | -28.50% |
| San Juan Capistrano | 92675 | $665,000 | 6.40% | 493 | -21.40% |
| Santa Ana | 92701 | $335,000 | 3.20% | 528 | 7.30% |
| Santa Ana | 92703 | $562,500 | 15.40% | 452 | -21.10% |
| Santa Ana | 92704 | $585,000 | 17.00% | 626 | -37.80% |
| Santa Ana | 92705 | $800,000 | 5.30% | 365 | -29.00% |
| Santa Ana | 92706 | $635,000 | 10.20% | 276 | -28.10% |
| Santa Ana | 92707 | $557,500 | 13.80% | 593 | -21.20% |
| Seal Beach | 90740 | $870,000 | 7.20% | 210 | -0.50% |
| Stanton | 90680 | $435,000 | 5.60% | 276 | -30.80% |
| Trabuco/Coto | 92679 | $890,000 | 9.70% | 625 | -32.10% |
| Tustin | 92780 | $562,500 | 17.20% | 478 | -27.10% |
| Tustin | 92782 | $714,500 | 19.20% | 482 | -39.00% |
| Villa Park | 92861 | $1,216,750 | -3.40% | 57 | -26.00% |
| Westminster | 92683 | $605,000 | 6.50% | 636 | -33.10% |
| Yorba Linda | 92886 | $825,000 | 6.50% | 684 | -33.40% |
| Yorba Linda | 92887 | $787,500 | -4.10% | 286 | -35.60% |
| All resale houses | $686,000 | 6.00% | 21,417 | -27.70% | |
| All condominiums | $455,000 | 4.80% | 9,399 | -34.00% | |
| All new homes | $697,000 | -3.30% | 4,912 | -2.10% | |
| All homes | $627,000 | 5.70% | 35,728 | -26.90% |
Here's a link to the original article on the Orange County Register's site:
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1549528.php
Five of the 10 fastest-growing states between 2005 and 2006 are in the West, including Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. With a growth rate of 3.6 percent, Arizona became the nation's fastest-growing state, a title previously held by Nevada for 19 consecutive years."
Reprinted with permission of the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS(R)
California still the most populous, eh? Like we didn't know that already. That data-hound probably didn't even count heads - he just tried to drive from LA to San Diego in under a day. The real question is, of course, how big will we be in ten years? How big in thirty years?
In case you haven't noticed, the spaces are filling in here, and you can conveniently stop at a Starbucks in four-mile intervals from Santa Barbara to Tia Juana. What does that do to our quality of life? What does that do to real estate prices in the near future? How about in the distant future?
I'm curious what futurists think. If you know any, key me in.
More info is availabe at the U.S. Census Bureau's website.
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Nice touch. I wonder who that helps the most? The people investigating an unknown area for hot tips on hot markets? Does it help agents? What would be an improvement on the idea? Crime stats overlaid on the pricing? School data?
I like it.
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