OC Exclusives Blog

For the longest time, I've needed at-a-glance market stats about the areas I serve... just a few generalities I can use to share with my clients... last month, my wish was granted when I contracted with a company to provide me with daily reports that span the past year for each of the cities I represent. The reports/charts detail four market factors - "Median Price", "Days on Market", "Number of Listings" & "Price Per Square Foot" - all of which are excellent determinants of market conditions.

For home sellers, the data can give them insight into market conditions in their areas right now. Of course, every home needs to be evaluated individually, but there is some benefit in seeing what an area's price-per-square-foot is in helping a home seller determine their home's value.

For home buyers, the data gives them the ability to measure the homes they are looking at against what the trends suggest in a broad sense... if a 2,000 square foot home in Irvine is priced at $750,000 and today's price-per-square-foot in Irvine is $425, that would suggest that the $725,000 home is $100,000 under what the general conditions for the city are {[($425 x 2,000 = $825,000) - $725,000] = $100,000}. Now, it is never this easy, nor will it ever be, to determine a home's real value, but it does give some sense of a base value for an area and can be used as a general guide when shopping.

At this point, I'm publishing data at the city level, but am driving at getting data at the zip-code level for greater refinement. Here's what I've got so far:

Real Estate Market Data for Aliso Viejo, California

Real Estate Market Data for Corona del Mar, California

Real Estate Market Data for Costa Mesa, California

Real Estate Market Data for Irvine, California

Real Estate Market Data for Ladera Ranch, California

Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Beach, California

Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Hills, California

Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Niguel, California

Real Estate Market Data for Mission Viejo, California

Real Estate Market Data for Newport Beach, California

Real Estate Market Data for Newport Coast, California

Real Estate Market Data for Orange, California

Real Estate Market Data for Rancho Santa Margarita, California

Real Estate Market Data for San Clemente, California

Real Estate Market Data for San Juan Capistrano, California

Real Estate Market Data for Tustin, California

Example Median Price Chart for Irvine, CA

Market Update Example for Irvine
(You'll need the Flash player to see this)

If you can't see that FlashPaper version of the "Market Report", here is an Adobe Acrobat version of the same report - Example Irvine Market Report

At this point, I'm not publishing the Market Reports on my site; they are too big...However, I am sending them to my client base, so if you want to receive one or two reports, just email me and I'll set you up to automatically get them in your inbox!

Posted by JesseBee at 06:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

I just couldn't pass up this up - I was reading the New Residential Sales stats report by the Department of Housing and Urban Development that was issued this afternoon. Apparently, sales of new one-family houses in October are up 1.7% over September's sales numbers. These stats are so loaded with meaning that entire swings in the market take place at their utterance. This is the number I hear repeated on NPR, read aloud by talking heads and discussed by bloggers; the only thing is, you never hear about the statistical variation in the report. To see what I mean, read the official excerpt from today's report below:

A statistical variation of "±11.0%"?!?

That means the "real" number could either be 12.7% more sales or -9.3% sales over the prior month's numbers? This is the quality of data that sets real estate and stock markets on fire or on ice? I think a much more honest report would say "We don't have the foggiest idea what the numbers are; in fact, your guess is probably as good as mine!"

I couldn't help but dig in a little deeper to see what that asterisk meant hanging off of that "±11.0%" figure in the report. At the bottom of the report, the “Explanatory Notes” say that “Whenever a statement such as ‘2.5 percent (±3.2%) above’ appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred.” At least they acknowledge the possibility of wild swings in the output.

All of this was simply to say - take your statistics with a grain of salt and double-check the sources and their publishers' intentions. There is no such thing as unbiased data; dig in a little deeper and try and put the information into a context that makes sense for you. For example, I think it is foolish to simply assume the national new home sales numbers automatically reflect on Orange County's numbers. Real estate is and will always be beholden to local market trends & issues, despite best-efforts to wrap them up into tasty sound bites that fit neatly between commercials.

Here's a link to the original report:
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN OCTOBER 2007 Report

There is meatier statistical-data collection methodology described on the Statistics Collection Methods section on the census.gov site here - http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesdoc.html

Posted by JesseBee at 12:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

I found an interesting website today - http://www.trulia.com. They use "heat maps" to gives users a graphical idea of pricing in the area.

Nice touch. I wonder who that helps the most? The people investigating an unknown area for hot tips on hot markets? Does it help agents? What would be an improvement on the idea? Crime stats overlaid on the pricing? School data?

I like it.

Posted by JesseBee at 08:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)