Main

December 31, 2007

Orange County Real Estate Market Trends & Data

For the longest time, I've needed at-a-glance market stats about the areas I serve... just a few generalities I can use to share with my clients... last month, my wish was granted when I contracted with a company to provide me with daily reports that span the past year for each of the cities I represent. The reports/charts detail four market factors - "Median Price", "Days on Market", "Number of Listings" & "Price Per Square Foot" - all of which are excellent determinants of market conditions.

For home sellers, the data can give them insight into market conditions in their areas right now. Of course, every home needs to be evaluated individually, but there is some benefit in seeing what an area's price-per-square-foot is in helping a home seller determine their home's value.

For home buyers, the data gives them the ability to measure the homes they are looking at against what the trends suggest in a broad sense... if a 2,000 square foot home in Irvine is priced at $750,000 and today's price-per-square-foot in Irvine is $425, that would suggest that the $725,000 home is $100,000 under what the general conditions for the city are {[($425 x 2,000 = $825,000) - $725,000] = $100,000}. Now, it is never this easy, nor will it ever be, to determine a home's real value, but it does give some sense of a base value for an area and can be used as a general guide when shopping.

At this point, I'm publishing data at the city level, but am driving at getting data at the zip-code level for greater refinement. Here's what I've got so far:

Real Estate Market Data for Aliso Viejo, California

Real Estate Market Data for Corona del Mar, California

Real Estate Market Data for Costa Mesa, California

Real Estate Market Data for Irvine, California

Real Estate Market Data for Ladera Ranch, California

Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Beach, California

Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Hills, California

Real Estate Market Data for Laguna Niguel, California

Real Estate Market Data for Mission Viejo, California

Real Estate Market Data for Newport Beach, California

Real Estate Market Data for Newport Coast, California

Real Estate Market Data for Orange, California

Real Estate Market Data for Rancho Santa Margarita, California

Real Estate Market Data for San Clemente, California

Real Estate Market Data for San Juan Capistrano, California

Real Estate Market Data for Tustin, California

Example Median Price Chart for Irvine, CA


Market Update Example for Irvine
(You'll need the Flash player to see this)











If you can't see that FlashPaper version of the "Market Report", here is an Adobe Acrobat version of the same report - Example Irvine Market Report

At this point, I'm not publishing the Market Reports on my site; they are too big...However, I am sending them to my client base, so if you want to receive one or two reports, just email me and I'll set you up to automatically get them in your inbox!

Posted by JesseBee at 06:52 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

November 30, 2007

Statistical Variation in New Home Sales Reports

I just couldn't pass up this up - I was reading the New Residential Sales stats report by the Department of Housing and Urban Development that was issued this afternoon. Apparently, sales of new one-family houses in October are up 1.7% over September's sales numbers. These stats are so loaded with meaning that entire swings in the market take place at their utterance. This is the number I hear repeated on NPR, read aloud by talking heads and discussed by bloggers; the only thing is, you never hear about the statistical variation in the report. To see what I mean, read the official excerpt from today's report below:

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN OCTOBER 2007


“Sales of new one-family houses in October 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 728,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 1.7 percent (±11.0%)* above the revised September rate of 716,000 and is 23.5 percent (±10.3%) below the October 2006 estimate of 952,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2007 was $217,800; the average sales price was $305,800. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 516,000. This represents a supply of 8.5 months at the current sales rate.”


A statistical variation of "±11.0%"?!?

That means the "real" number could either be 12.7% more sales or -9.3% sales over the prior month's numbers? This is the quality of data that sets real estate and stock markets on fire or on ice? I think a much more honest report would say "We don't have the foggiest idea what the numbers are; in fact, your guess is probably as good as mine!"

I couldn't help but dig in a little deeper to see what that asterisk meant hanging off of that "±11.0%" figure in the report. At the bottom of the report, the “Explanatory Notes” say that “Whenever a statement such as ‘2.5 percent (±3.2%) above’ appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred.” At least they acknowledge the possibility of wild swings in the output.

All of this was simply to say - take your statistics with a grain of salt and double-check the sources and their publishers' intentions. There is no such thing as unbiased data; dig in a little deeper and try and put the information into a context that makes sense for you. For example, I think it is foolish to simply assume the national new home sales numbers automatically reflect on Orange County's numbers. Real estate is and will always be beholden to local market trends & issues, despite best-efforts to wrap them up into tasty sound bites that fit neatly between commercials.

Here's a link to the original report:
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN OCTOBER 2007 Report

There is meatier statistical-data collection methodology described on the Statistics Collection Methods section on the census.gov site here - http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesdoc.html

Posted by JesseBee at 12:56 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

October 01, 2007

To Stage or Not to Stage?

When you are selling, or for that matter - listing - a vacant home, you should consider decorating - or "staging" - the home to show it in its best light possible.

The questions that begs asking is: Does a well-decorated and "staged" interior help a home sell faster and/or help retain a higher asking price versus a vacant home? The conventional wisdom answers "yes" to both questions, but I'd love to see some hard data on the matter. One of my clients just had their home staged, we received two offers within two days after the home was staged.

Kevin Htain of Identity Home did the staging and did a fine job. Take a look at a few "before" and "after" pix:

staged_stairs_before.jpg
Before

staged_stairs_after.jpg
After


staged_living_before.jpg
Before

staged_living_after.jpg
After


staged_dining_before.jpg
Before

staged_dining_after.jpg
After


staged_kitchen_before.jpg
Before

staged_kitchen_after.jpg
After


staged_masterRetreat_before.jpg
Before

staged_masterRetreat_after.jpg
After


staged_masterBath_before.jpg
Before

staged_masterBath_after.jpg
After


There are more than enough comparisons there to give you the idea - staging a home makes a house much more inviting than an empty space. Kevin Htain did an excellent job of looking at the interior & exterior of the home and creating an overall scheme that worked. Moreover, the owner of the home believed enough in the concept that he willing paid for the staging, hoping that it would pay off with a buyer who would see themselves in the home by extension of the furnishings.

The owner's investment paid off almost immediately after the staging was finished and after the property had been on the market for 5 months. Needless to say, the owner was relieved to have made a wise investment and was happy to finally sell the house.

I don't know whether or not the right buyer just came along at the right time, and the house had escaped their attention thus far, but I can't help bu think that the staging was the tipping point that made them act and make an offer.

Kevin Htain, ASP, IAHSP can be reached at:

IDENTITY HOME staging+design
www.identityhome.com
www.stagedhomes.com/identityhome
kevin@identityhome.com
562.884.1026


Posted by JesseBee at 10:35 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

September 21, 2007

Photography & Orange County Real Estate

I'm constantly looking for new vistas to shoot for my real estate website - www.ocexclusives.com . I carry my camera with me everywhere, and when I can remember it, my tripod.

The challenge for me is to capture an area's soul without being too literal. I'm not exactly interested in the stucco work in Rancho Santa Margarita or Irvine's latest development... those can all be great things, but they have a tendency to fade with time... I think people are looking for more than just architecture in a neighborhood... I think they're looking for "place"... I'm more interested in the way the trees bend to the light and the way Saddleback rises in the distance to frame the area. Every city I visit has these unique qualities... it just takes slowing down and sometimes squinting into the light to blur out the details so you can see the big picture...

Here are a couple photos I took yesterday for the site:

sjc_1024.jpg

San Juan Capistrano real estate

rsm_1024.jpg

Rancho Santa Margarita real estate

coto_1024.jpg

Coto de Caza real estate

ladera_ranch_1024.jpg

Ladera Ranch real estate

robinson_ranch_1024.jpg

Robinson Ranch real estate

Posted by JesseBee at 03:44 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

January 30, 2007

Orange County Sales & Median Prices Report for 2006

The Orange County Register recently reported on the sales and median price change in 2006 from 2005. Despite the best efforts of bubble-burst advocates and doom purveyors, the median sales price in Orange County INCREASED 5.7% over 2005's numbers. The number of homes sold DECREASED 26.9%, but I would argue that people who sell their homes are less concerned about volume than actual sales prices. Put another way, when people go shopping for apples, I think far few wonder "How many of these apples sold last year and should I buy apples now?" as opposed to "How much does this apple cost me and when can I eat it?"

In all, a 5.7% uptick in home values across the county is great news. For people that put 20% down on a property, that's effectively a 28.5% return on their dollar. Wow; not bad for the "bubble" year, huh?

Here's the numbers:

Community Zip Median Change Sales Change
Aliso Viejo92656$526,000 -1.70%1112-28.20%
Anaheim92801$559,000 12.20%440-13.70%
Anaheim92802$583,000 11.00%247-33.10%
Anaheim92804$581,000 10.60%676-29.10%
Anaheim92805$565,000 9.50%464-26.00%
Anaheim92806$623,000 7.60%264-23.70%
Anaheim92807$655,000 5.70%472-36.40%
Anaheim92808$660,000 16.80%346-37.20%
Brea92821$650,000 6.60%356-26.40%
Brea92823$760,000 -2.80%53-47.00%
Buena Park90620$580,000 9.40%430-22.80%
Buena Park90621$549,000 13.20%294-21.60%
Corona del Mar92625$1,675,000 5.80%178-25.20%
Costa Mesa92626$720,000 7.50%356-32.80%
Costa Mesa92627$702,500 4.20%454-26.80%
Cypress90630$561,000 6.70%520-12.50%
Dana Point92624$869,000 8.80%89-35.50%
Dana Point92629$840,000 8.40%399-28.60%
Foothill Ranch92610$472,000 -24.50%255-17.70%
Fountain Valley92708$700,000 5.90%480-30.10%
Fullerton92831$592,500 9.70%320-16.90%
Fullerton92832$571,000 12.00%178-21.90%
Fullerton92833$596,000 8.80%634-33.10%
Fullerton92835$700,000 4.50%289-30.70%
Garden Grove92840$590,000 10.30%489-25.30%
Garden Grove92841$594,500 8.10%267-29.70%
Garden Grove92843$540,000 8.00%341-31.10%
Garden Grove92844$479,000 6.80%237-26.90%
Garden Grove92845$608,000 3.20%192-4.50%
Huntington Beach92646$650,000 7.40%647-30.20%
Huntington Beach92647$660,000 3.10%369-28.80%
Huntington Beach92648$975,000 10.20%538-43.80%
Huntington Beach92649$680,000 -2.40%364-36.40%
Irvine92602$747,500 9.10%390-35.40%
Irvine92603$960,000 7.90%438-34.70%
Irvine92604$655,000 4.80%276-35.40%
Irvine92606$725,000 10.10%200-30.80%
Irvine92612$668,000 31.00%338-55.20%
Irvine92614$600,000 8.10%297-38.80%
Irvine92618$579,500 5.40%217-26.20%
Irvine92620$797,500 11.80%737-30.80%
Ladera Ranch92694$833,000 27.20%961-30.80%
La Habra90631$450,000 -4.10%780-7.70%
La Palma90623$640,000 0.80%105-44.40%
Laguna Beach92651$1,600,000 14.30%310-35.10%
Laguna Hills92653$620,000 13.80%414-39.10%
Laguna Niguel92677$683,750 5.20%1152-35.20%
Laguna Woods92637$320,000 -1.20%375-6.70%
Lake Forest92630$600,000 14.50%805-35.80%
Los Alamitos90720$887,000 15.20%190-21.20%
Midway City92655$560,000 12.00%69-17.90%
Mission Viejo92691$650,000 4.70%684-28.10%
Mission Viejo92692$689,000 10.70%743-32.50%
Newport Beach92660$1,334,750 -2.10%338-36.10%
Newport Beach92661$2,250,000 21.60%44-36.20%
Newport Beach92662$2,112,500 -9.30%23-36.10%
Newport Beach92663$1,225,000 24.40%260-31.60%
Newport Coast92657$2,181,500 14.50%243-44.10%
Orange92865$624,000 8.50%172-36.50%
Orange92866$650,000 6.50%100-9.10%
Orange92867$680,000 3.00%457-19.00%
Orange92868$510,000 13.00%172-23.20%
Orange92869$661,250 10.20%505-27.00%
Placentia92870$635,000 11.80%621-24.50%
Rancho Santa Margarita92688$540,000 3.80%903-38.60%
San Clemente92672$860,000 18.60%370-33.90%
San Clemente92673$970,000 9.10%654-28.50%
San Juan Capistrano92675$665,000 6.40%493-21.40%
Santa Ana92701$335,000 3.20%5287.30%
Santa Ana92703$562,500 15.40%452-21.10%
Santa Ana92704$585,000 17.00%626-37.80%
Santa Ana92705$800,000 5.30%365-29.00%
Santa Ana92706$635,000 10.20%276-28.10%
Santa Ana92707$557,500 13.80%593-21.20%
Seal Beach90740$870,000 7.20%210-0.50%
Stanton90680$435,000 5.60%276-30.80%
Trabuco/Coto92679$890,000 9.70%625-32.10%
Tustin92780$562,500 17.20%478-27.10%
Tustin92782$714,500 19.20%482-39.00%
Villa Park92861$1,216,750 -3.40%57-26.00%
Westminster92683$605,000 6.50%636-33.10%
Yorba Linda92886$825,000 6.50%684-33.40%
Yorba Linda92887$787,500 -4.10%286-35.60%
All resale houses $686,000 6.00%21,417-27.70%
All condominiums $455,000 4.80%9,399-34.00%
All new homes $697,000 -3.30%4,912-2.10%
All homes $627,000 5.70%35,728-26.90%

Here's a link to the original article on the Orange County Register's site:
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1549528.php

Posted by JesseBee at 08:57 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

January 03, 2007

California Remains the Most Populous State

"The population of the U.S. grew by 2.9 million people between July 1, 2005, and July 1, 2006, according to a recent report by the U.S. Census Bureau. More than 299 million people reside in the nation, and the five most populous states, led by California with 36.5 million residents, account for 37 percent of the country's population. Regionally, the West comprises 23 percent of the nation's total population.


Five of the 10 fastest-growing states between 2005 and 2006 are in the West, including Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. With a growth rate of 3.6 percent, Arizona became the nation's fastest-growing state, a title previously held by Nevada for 19 consecutive years."

From December 27, 2006 C.A.R. Newsline

Reprinted with permission of the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS(R)

California still the most populous, eh? Like we didn't know that already. That data-hound probably didn't even count heads - he just tried to drive from LA to San Diego in under a day. The real question is, of course, how big will we be in ten years? How big in thirty years?

In case you haven't noticed, the spaces are filling in here, and you can conveniently stop at a Starbucks in four-mile intervals from Santa Barbara to Tia Juana. What does that do to our quality of life? What does that do to real estate prices in the near future? How about in the distant future?

I'm curious what futurists think. If you know any, key me in.

More info is availabe at the U.S. Census Bureau's website.

Posted by JesseBee at 07:53 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

December 26, 2006

Find that neighborhood! And give it a color!

I found an interesting website today - http://www.trulia.com. They use "heat maps" to gives users a graphical idea of pricing in the area.

heatMap.jpg

Nice touch. I wonder who that helps the most? The people investigating an unknown area for hot tips on hot markets? Does it help agents? What would be an improvement on the idea? Crime stats overlaid on the pricing? School data?

I like it.

Posted by JesseBee at 08:12 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)